In 1997-98 three women were at the forefront of Indian Politics, Ms. Jayalalithaa, Ms. Mamtha Banerjee and Ms. Mayavati. Together, they brought down the 13 month old Government of BJP and gave many sleepless nights to the BJP leaders.
BJP senior leader Jaswant Singh and Mr. George Fernandes used to regularly on mission pacify Ms. Jayalalithaa in those times.
History seems to be on a repeat mode after 12 years. Post elections 2009, at least two powerful women politicians of the country are going to have a bigger role at the center.
Jayalalitha, Mayawati to play key role post polls: Sardesai
Rajdeep Sardesai, Editor-in-Chief, CNN-IBN, said there is no clear trend emerging from elections till now. He feels the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may do better than 2004 in Uttar Pradesh (UP). “The fight in Maharashtra will be much closer than anticipated.”
According to him, both the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) believe they will end up with 180-200 seats. He feels Jayalalitha and Mayawati will play a key role post elections. “A pre-poll alliance that manages to bag more than 200 seats will be at an advantage to form the government. The Congress will have to negotiate with the Left.”
He believes the chances of a Third Front leading the next Central government are grim.
Q: Any sense so far that we are almost getting to the third phase on – which way is the wind blowing?
A: It is very difficult to predict which way the wind is really blowing because I think with every phase you are finding that the wind moves in very different directions. It is obvious that there is no single pattern that is emerging at the end of the day. There are certain states that is obvious in the first two rounds. The BJP is done pretty well. Chattisgard, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh to give a few examples. On the other hand, the Congress seems to have done rather well in Kerala. Take the case in Andhra Pradesh, where the feeling is that in the first round, which was in the Talagana region, Congress has not done well, but every report that we are now getting from the ground is that the second round in costal Andhra the congress did very well. So you are getting the first signs of what is likely to be a mixed verdict. The best news for the BJP is probably coming from Uttar Pradesh where in the first two rounds the party seems to held its own and probably done better than it did in 2004. So a very mixed data coming in. Even in Maharastra it appears that the fight is much closer than anyone would have imagined.Q: By the end of Phase III how clear might it be, what kind of forces are coming to power?
A: I think you have to wait till May 16; it is becoming increasingly clear that the battle is not about 272 anymore or the half way of the Lok Sabha but the battle now is about getting even 200. Which pre-poll alliance reaches 200 will probably have the momentum with it to probably reach 272 with the help of post-poll allies. That is the target. At the moment both the major alliances’, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA), own assessment is that they are ending up anywhere between a 180 and 200, 180 makes it difficult to form a government, 200 gives you the option of looking for post-poll allies. For the NDA, the key is Mayawati and Jayalalitha. The NDA will be banking on them doing well and maybe becoming future post-poll allies. For the UPA, the key is to hold its own and also in a strange way that Mulayam Singh Yadav does reasonably well, that Lalu Prasad Yadav doesn’t get decimated and the Left at the end of the day gets 30-35 seats and is left with few options but to back the UPA after the elections.Q: Tomorrow is an important day for Gujarat, there is a lot of noise around Bombay but Gujarat it is 26 seats and should be crucial for the NDA or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)?
A: Absolutely. What is happening is in states where there is a direct fight at the moment, we have seen that in Madhya Pradesh already Chhattisgarh, the BJP seems to have the edge. Certainly in Gujarat, every indication the BJP has the edge but last time in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got 14 out of 26, the Congress got 12. Every indication is that the BJP will do better than last time. The question is how much better. The BJP needs to do extremely well in states like Gujarat to make sure that they are closer as an NDA block to that 200 figure.Q: From what you are saying and falling short of getting even to the 200 mark, how much longer post the final counting day do you think it will take before we finally know what kind of combination there is at the top? Do you think it is going to become a more extended period post counting?
A: I must confess, I fear it will be an extended period only because it will take time for all these pieces to fit into the jigsaw. I think it is clear that if the NDA gets 200, they will try and send emissaries to Lucknow and Chennai because Mayawati and Jayalalitha are their potential targets in a post-poll scenario. Heaven knows what kind of a government it will be if it involves both Mayawati and Jayalalitha.
On the other hand, for the UPA it is clear that it will have to do some kind of negotiations with the Left. It is almost inevitable. The question is what price will the Left try and extract for that kind of negotiation.
There is a third possibility which people are talking about which is that Nitish Kumar in Bihar does well and that Jayalalitha does well in Tamil Nadu and that they switch sides i.e. Jayalalitha chooses to along with the Congress who would benefit her in 2011 Tamil Nadu elections and Nitish Kumar who seems to be slowly distancing himself from the BJP also decides to switch sides. That will take time, it won’t happen overnight. If you have a situation where the two major pre-poll alliances are anywhere between 180 and 210, they will need at least a week to put all these pieces together. So I think you are looking at a scenario where after May 16 – it will take a week but as I have said before post that expect a relative degree of stability. I think there will be some level of seeming chaos after May 16 but eventually I do believe that the government that is formed will be a lot more stable than many people imagine. I still don’t see, like many others do, the possibility of a third front government. I still see the UPA and the NDA being in poll position to lead the next government.Source: www.moneycontrol.com
